Franconian Beer Message Board

New Prices
Posted by Nyto on 2021-12-31 08:26:03
Interesting to think about trends & 'opportunities'.

- beer (rent/real estate, materials, staff, equipment, promotion, administration/insurance, distribution)
- pub (rent/real estate, staff, equipment/interior, consumables/beer/..)

The large decrease of classical 'wet' pubs (while partly cultural) has alot to do with the increase in real estate prices (thereby rent prices / pubcos) over the last decade or two. Franconian brewers mainly selling at their own venue should be fairly well insulated against this issue as I assume most either own the properties or are located in small villages less affected by real estate trends. Do breweries like Schlenkerla, Spezial, Mahrs and other from outside own bar property they rent to proprietors with some kind of loose tie? Regarding brewery sales/volume a danger lies in rising rental prices for regular bars/restaurants shifting their cost ratio and thereby possibly necessitating buiness model change or different margin calculations.

While electricity/gas prices should come down and somewhat stabilise, I think, an increase on the unusually low prices of the last years is unavoidable with surging demand due to transition to electric transportation and new regulations/phasing out of sources over the next years. Here brewery cost savings will only be possible due to equipment investments (brewing plants - likely very slowly & local electricity generation/storing).

Staff salaries have only recently began increasing, but over the next decade likely will continue to raise with motr bargaining power to staff. Most brewery staff is locally bound leading to price decreases. But staff acquisition likely has to change as cultural change in the beer landscape and lifestyles will likely increase their turnover. Not to forget the looming generational handover. Serving staff salaries will likely increase more dramatically due to  living cost increases forcing people to look for better paying jobs. The shortage is already visible, especially in the rural regions. Further the uneven population age distribution will hit with a) large amounts of people retiring, b) significant increase in health care staff needed for an aging population - lower availability and c) less younger people willing to do often insecure and difficult work compared to alternatives. Regulary changes to part-time work would be the easiest gain as well as adding people in stay-at-home 1-breadearner arrangements and of course immigration. The big opportunity in rural regions are communally run pubs (which will likely look different to their current example, but Zoiglstuben might be an example) as well as UK-style micropubs run by retirees. Next to rent, staff will be a real pain point.

Bierkeller & 'destination' pubs will do great, day-to-day rural brewery pubs will suffer. More diverse food (ie. see Knoblach) and being a genuine hub for local activities beside 'sitting at the pub' seem most promising. Easiest win would be to be more welcoming to wider groups of people especially women (while Franconia is much better than other regions here, there is so much benefitial change possible)!

Food for thought!